17-06-10_NYT-ClimateDealNeedsBigStick

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NYT: Climate Deal Badly Needs a Big Stick

Few economists are as versed in the global diplomatic effort to combat climate change as Nicholas Stern of Britain.

So it was particularly distressing to hear him say, at a debate in New York a few weeks ago, that the international effort to achieve a worldwide climate agreement in Paris next December is already falling short on its most critical goal. The various pledges by nations to cut their emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, he noted, will not be enough to prevent the Earth’s temperature from rising beyond the level scientists consider the tipping point to devastating environmental disruption.

… Such failure indicates that getting countries to make the costly but necessary investments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions will require more than diplomacy. It will require a big stick.

… Climate change is tougher. For one thing, it will be more costly for a country to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. The benefits will be shared by the entire world. Moreover, the threshold for devastating consequences is uncertain. For many, the optimal strategy will be to lie low and reap the gains as so-called free riders.

While countries might cooperate if they were absolutely certain of the tipping point that led to catastrophe, climate science doesn’t work like that. Experiments by Professor Barrett and Astrid Dannenberg from the University of Gothenburg in Sweden have found that where there is uncertainty, free-riding becomes irresistible, cooperation breaks down and catastrophe occurs.
– New York Times: Climate Deal Badly Needs a Big Stick.

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Climate Change Negotiations: Game Theory and Experimental Evidence

Presentation: Climate Change Negotiations: Game Theory and Experimental Evidence.
» SQSwans: Astrid Dannenberg.

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Collective Change, Clarity of Language Enable Trust & Cooperation

  • When Actions required of individuals for collective change are Clear and unambiguous, trust and incentives for cooperation are strong; and the chances are greater that such change can be implemented and enforced.
  • When Actions required of individuals, groups or nations for collective change, are Vague and Ambiguous; cheating and free riding results; and the chances are low to non-existent that such change can be implemented and enforced.

» SQSwans: Astrid Dannenberg.

 

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Genghis Khan the Green Effect:

Genghis Khan The Green EoP Reforestation Effect:

If EoP Cop21/CPAC17 Root Cause Problem Solving Implemented for humane deindustrialization and depopulation; it would have greater positive effects on re-forestation, biodiversity and climate change than the extremely violent depopulation implemented by Genghis Khan the Green.

Genghis Khan has been branded the greenest invader in history – after his murderous conquests killed so many people that huge swathes of cultivated land returned to forest. The Mongol leader, who established a vast empire between the 13th and 14th centuries, helped remove nearly 700 million tons of carbon from the atmosphere, claims a new study. The deaths of 40 million people meant that large areas of cultivated land grew thick once again with trees, which absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. And, although his methods may be difficult for environmentalists to accept, ecologists believe it may be the first ever case of successful manmade global cooling.

Genghis Khan and his Mongol hordes had an impact on the global carbon cycle as big as today’s annual demand for gasoline. The Black Death, on the other hand, came and went too quickly for it to cause much of a blip in the global carbon budget. Dwarfing both of these events, however, has been the historical trend towards increasing deforestation, which over centuries has released vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, as crop and pasture lands expanded to feed growing human populations. Even Genghis Kahn couldn’t stop it for long.

“.. humans started to influence the environment thousands of years ago by changing the vegetation cover of the Earth‘s landscapes when we cleared forests for agriculture.”

— Coupled climate–carbon simulations indicate minor global effects of wars and epidemics on atmospheric CO2 between AD 800 and 18501 study by Julia Pongratz; article: Genghis Khan the GREEN: Invader killed so many people that carbon levels plummeted; Carnegie: War, Plague No Match for Deforestation in Driving CO2 Buildup.
– IGN: Genghis Khan the GREEN: Invader killed so many people that carbon levels plummeted.
» IG: 17-03-01_genghiskhangreen-eopscevolution.

Derrick Jensen: Open Letter to Reclaim Environmentalism:
One sign of intelligence is the ability to recognize patterns: let’s lay out a pattern and see if we can recognize it in less than 10,000 years. When you think of Iraq, do you think of cedar forests so thick that sunlight never touches the ground? That’s how it was prior to the beginnings of this culture. The Near East was a forest. North Africa was a forest. Greece was a forest. All pulled down to support this [War is Penis] culture.
– [EoP Amended] Derrick Jensen: Open Letter to Reclaim Environmentalism.
» IG: 17-03-01_genghiskhangreen-eopscevolution.

EoP Submissions to Cop 21 & CPAC 2017:
– EoP CoP 21: eop-cop21.tygae.org.za
– EoP CPAC17: eop-cpac17.tygae.org.za.
» IG: 17-03-01_genghiskhangreen-eopscevolution.

Dannenberg: Coordination under threshold uncertainty in a public goods game

Working Paper 64 Abstract: We explored experimentally how threshold uncertainty affects coordination success in a threshold public goods game.

Whereas all groups succeeded in providing the public good when the exact value of the threshold was known, uncertainty was generally detrimental for the public good provision.

The negative effect of threshold uncertainty was particularly severe when it took the form of ambiguity, ie when players were not only unaware of the value of the threshold but also of its probability distribution.

Early signalling of willingness to contribute and share the burden equitably helped groups in coping with threshold uncertainty.
» CCCEP: Coordination under threshold uncertainty in a public goods game.
» SQSwans: Astrid Dannenberg.

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Garrett Tim: The physics of long-run global economic growth

What is wealth? What conditions allow for innovation and growth? To what extent does our global economy rely on raw materials and energy? Can we decouple global economic growth from climate change? – Utah Univ: Tim Garrett: The Physics of Long Run Economic Growth.
» SQSwans: Timothy Garrett.

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Garrett Tim: The Big Picture – Like It or Not

Dr. Tim Garrett says civilization must collapse to avert devastating climate change.

.. “University of Utah Physics Professor Dr. Tim Garrett explains why fossil-based wealth leads to both hyper-inflation and a ruined climate. All from a published, peer-reviewed paper in Journal “Climatic Change”. According to our energy and wealth equation, only a sudden economic collapse could save us from 5 degrees Celsius global temperature rise (or more) by 2100. And we’ll get over 100% inflation along the way. One of the most important interviews of the year.

His paper is titled “Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?

By applying his formula, Garrett says it would take a new nuclear plant built every single day to keep up our current standard of living. As that isn’t happening, and may be impossible, the only other solution is economic collapse. In our interview, Garrett suggests a horrible economic crash, which I imagine as diving perhaps to Medieval standards of life, is required just to reach 450 parts per million of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
– Radio EcoShock: The Big Picture: Like it or Not.
» SQSwans: Timothy Garrett.

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Meltdown: Christine Le Gard: What Gets Measured Gets Done

“If you can’t measure something, you can’t improve things, because you have no basis of evaluation.” – Christine Le Gard, Meltdown.

In the first episode of Meltdown, we hear about four men who brought down the global economy: a billionaire mortgage-seller who fooled millions; a high-rolling banker with a fatal weakness; a ferocious Wall Street predator; and the power behind the throne. The crash of September 2008 brought the largest bankruptcies in world history, pushing more than 30 million people into unemployment and bringing many countries to the edge of insolvency. Wall Street turned back the clock to 1929. But how did it all go so wrong? Lack of government regulation; easy lending in the US housing market meant anyone could qualify for a home loan with no government regulations in place. Also, London was competing with New York as the banking capital of the world. Gordon Brown, the British finance minister at the time, introduced ‘light touch regulation’ – giving bankers a free hand in the marketplace. All this, and with key players making the wrong financial decisions, saw the world’s biggest financial collapse.
» Al Jazeera: Meltdown: The Men Who Crashed the World.
» IG: 17-05-17_putin-objectivetruth-wwii.

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Ecology of Peace Scientific and Cultural Law

Scientific Law: Ecological Carrying Capacity — Eco Footprint — Scientific Law refers to: * Procreation below carrying capacity limits. * Consumption below carrying capacity limits. Human Nature Scientific Law refers to: * Fully Informed Consenting Agreements. Individuals Rights and Duties under Scientific Law include:  Property Ration for all individuals who have signed their Responsible Freedom Declaration OathsViolations of Scientific Law are referred to as Crimes of Aggression, which can be breeding, consumption and/or violation of consent crimes of aggression.

Cultural Law: Cultural law refers to any racial, religious, gender cultural value agreed upon, and codified in a written agreement between two or more individuals, which does not violate any of the scientific laws; enabling a greater degree of cooperation and mutual assistance support between such individuals. Individuals Rights and Duties under Cultural Law include: Cultural Law Territorial Self Rule for Groups with Subjective Racial, Religious& Gender Culture-Conflict IdentitiesViolations of Cultural Law would fall under Crimes of Aggression: Violations of Fully Informed Consent. Conflict of Cultural Law Violations: Violations of Cultural Law between two individuals or groups of individuals with different Cultural Laws, would be adjudicated in terms of Scientific Law: Crimes of Aggression: Violations of Fully Informed Consent.
» EoP NTE GMA Potus: EoP Scientific and Cultural Law.

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Revolution in Military Ethics: Whom should the Military Kill?

Our dilemma is that of defining just and unjust actions within our wars and conflicts. It is time to reexamine habits that have come to pass for ethics and ask the sort of questions that are as controversial as they are uncomfortable to the man or woman of conscience … We must reexamine our concepts of the ethical and the legal. .. The whispered warning that we do not condone “assassinations” because we do not want our own leader assassinated is a counsel of unspeakable cowardice. First, if leaders will not risk the fate they ask of their privates, they are not fit to lead their people. Second, if foreign criminals, official or private, knew that retribution would be generally swift and always sure, attacks on US leaders — or US citizens overall — would likely decrease wonderfully. And such a policy would return us once again to an objectively moral path.

These issues demand serious debate. Traditionalists who decry even the possibility of attacking these sources of human misery in such a manner generally do so from campuses or comfortable offices. They are out of contact with our citizenry and its needs, as they are phenomenally out of contact with the sheer violence of this world. They will immediately push the issue to absurd extremes, crying out that such a doctrine would amount to giving our military, .. a license to kill. But the purpose of a military is to kill, and if you cannot stomach that, you should not have a military.

The only operative question is whom the military should kill.
»» Col Ralph Peters: Revolution in Military Ethics
» IG: 17-05-30_eopftbragg-milethicsqa.